What if the troops were pulled from Iraq?

I listened with interest to the debate in the House or Rep. last night and the tactic of forcing a vote on immediate withdrawal of our troops from Iraq. The resolution was defeated immediately.

Despite the possibility that the issue was not really that anyone wanted to have an immediate pull-out now, but more that they wanted accountability, a plan, the question can be raised about what would really happen if we decided to be out of Iraq sooner than later. The possible answeres reveal much about what our unstated goals may be.

First, I would guess that most Iraqiis don't want us in their country much longer. Of all the factions the Kurds have the most to gain by us being there as protection against reprisals from the Sunnis. The Sheite majority also gain by having us there, but they are really uncomfortable with unvelievers there and would probably like an Islamic Republic like Iran that would be hostile to the US. Ironically, it was a secular Sunni centered government that was most in line with U.S. Interests. Were it not for Sadamm Hussain, we might have tolerated a repressive regime in Iraq.

If we pulled out within say the next six months, what is likely to happen? I think that what is now an insurgancy that targets Americans as well as other factions degenerates into all out civil war. What is wrong with that? We stepped in and destabilized the country much like Yougaslavia was distabilized after the death of Tito. We could do an about face and embrace a UN brokered peace keeping mission like we had to in Bosnia and Kosovo, but the attitude of the Bush Administration to the UN makes that unlikely. So, the only outcome without us is probably a civil war unless some miracle consensus emerges.

People in Congress have said that the Iraqiis need to find their own solution. This is either going to be now or after a bloody civil war which we could choose not to be in the middle of. So why do we care and does it matter for finding out how we got into this mess in the first place?

It may be that the worst accusation that can be made about the reason we went to war, namely that it was all about control of oil, may be true afterall. This is certianlly in line with the history of the region since the fall of the Ottoman Turks when in 1921 the British proved large reserves of oil there and north in Iran. Whatever real regard we have for the people of Iraq and the painful realization that their self-determination has to be determined by themselves without our intimate help. We may be doing more harm than good, but the Administration may have a not so hidden agenda in geoeconomics in "staying the course". People in the Pentagon have been saying that we would be there for years.